Thursday, October 30, 2008


Looking for a bellwether group to focus on in the final week of the presidential race?

Look no further than white Catholics, who have gone for the winner in every single presidential election for which exit polling exists. That means that since 1972, the candidate for whom the majority of white Catholics cast their votes has -- like clockwork -- claimed the presidency. For the non-math majors out there, that's EIGHT straight elections. (Looking for the exact numbers? Check after the jump.)

For months, the Washington Post/ABC News poll, has shown John McCain holding a wide lead over Barack Obama among this key swing group, which in the past eight elections has comprised between 20 and 25 percent of the electorate as a whole. Back in mid-June, McCain was at 60 percent, with 34 percent for Obama -- a margin that fluctuated somewhat as the summer wore on but by the end of the Republican National Convention had returned to a 19-point McCain edge.

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